Tom Steyer’s Chances: The Math Ain’t Mathing. (But it is completely toasting him.)
Turns out 342,653 votes is a terrible thing for a Billionaire to be short on going into a weekend.
BSofA · Blindsided States of America™ · June 5, 2026
Attention: Xavier Becerra voters.
We know you wanted to know the election results by now. We know you're sitting there wondering what kind of campaign you're going to have to emotionally endure for the next 5 months, and how many serene beach scene videos are you going to need to keep you even keel. Well… we have some data.
And with it…
we're going to give you your weekend back.
We ran the numbers. And let's just say if you were worried about Tom Steyer weaseling his way into the rest of your summer psyche with some type of Herculean voter count comeback over the next few days… Tom Steyer is feeling a lot more data-informed stress than you are, from what his campaign staff are likely trying to hold his hand gently for what they need to brace his ego for. Let's break it down.
At 68% reporting, Tom Steyer trails Steve Hilton by 342,653 raw votes and 5.3 percentage points. He’s at 21.0%, a number that didn’t just stall. It ticked back down on the final update of the day. The AP already called Xavier Becerra for slot one. Whether Steyer gets slot two has a statistical answer: roughly 0.3% probability. We built the charts. You can look at them yourself.
The “late Democratic mail ballots will save him” argument falls apart the second you look at where those ballots actually live. The three biggest counties in California are Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego. In LA, the late Democratic surge is real and it’s going straight to Becerra. In Orange and San Diego, Hilton leads at 30.8% and 31.2% with roughly 27–28% of each county still outstanding. Those counties aren’t closing for Steyer. They’re padding Hilton’s lead. His strongest counties, San Francisco, Marin, Santa Barbara, don't come close to producing the volume he needs to claw back 342,000 votes regardless of how many ballots remain in each.
Watch what he’s doing while the count finishes. Seeding the story that Becerra bought the election through PACs. Refusing to concede while that story circulates. Using the counting window as cover. A man who actually believed the remaining ballots would save him wouldn’t need to run disinformation alongside them. That’s a communal narcissist working his own voters, fully aware it damages the party, genuinely unbothered by it. We flagged this behavior before the final tallies came in. The data showed up and confirmed every bit of it.
The full breakdown, vote trajectory, county analysis, raw vote gap, and final probability assessment. The math is transparent, the sourcing is cited, and the conclusion doesn’t ask you to squint.
If we’re wrong, we’ll live-stream ourselves eating a bowl of Tom Steyer’s campaign brochures with a side of Chad Bianco’s endorsement list. Seasoned with our tears.
BSofA · Blindsided States of America™
Independent political commentary & investigative publishing. Satire included.
Not paid by… not receiving donations from... not beholden to… anyone.
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